Focus Groups: Whos Making Money

Wednesday Worries – Ireland “Fixed” – Who’s Next?

Courtesy of Phil at Phil's Stock World

So many things are pissing me off today.

I got my political outrage out of the way in my earlier post: "Thanks for the Gas Money, Mr. President," so we don't need to talk about that again. Ireland, as of 7:45, has not actually voted to accept the EU's deal, which will pull $20,000 per Irish family directly from national pension funds to pay for the speculative mistakes of Irish Banks. Additionally, the Irish people are being asked to borrow another $75,000 per family from the EU at about 6% interest, also to pay for the speculative mistakes made by the Irish Banks. While this may seem insane - it's only a drop in the bucket compared to what Americans are spending to bail out our own speculators so why shouldn't they join the club?

At least Ireland gets to vote for their obligations, we have a Federal Reserve System where a single man, known as "The Bernank" is able to spend what is now heading towards $3.5Tn of OUR MONEY to bail out his banking buddies. That's $31,818 per American family spent over two years IN ADDITION to the stuff I complained about Obama and our spineless Government spending in the last post.

As I said, things are pissing me off today! I should be in a better mood - we had a fabulous day trading in Member Chat yesterday. In yesterday's post, I closed with "One last stab at making some bearish profits for us (see Morning Alert)" and you can click on that Alert, which was posted on Seeking Alpha and check out our trade ideas for the $10,000 to $50,000 Portfolio which included (at 7:22 am yesterday) QID Jan $10 calls, which opened at $1.80 and finished at $2 (up 11%), DIA Dec $114 puts, which opened at .80 and finished at $1.33 (up 66%), XRT Jan $44 puts, which opened at .35 and finished at .55 (up 57%), USO Jan $36 puts, which opened at .66 and finished at .90 (up 36%), PCLN weekly $400 puts, which opened at $.50 and finished at $1.40 (up 180%) and NFLX Jan $155 puts, which opened at $1.70 and finished at $2.30 (up 35%) but should look much better this morning, where we will exit.

Of course I featured the idea to short NFLX last Thursday in the Morning Post (which you would get at 8:30 every morning in progress if you subscribed!) and we talked about shorting oil in the Weekend Post and I mentioned XRT last week as well so it's not like these are even our "super-secret" trade ideas - this is just the stuff that looked obvious enough to risk our small portfolio plays on (as you don't want to take too much risk in a small portfolio, even when it is aggressive like our virtual $10,000 Portfolio). Once we got into Member Chat for the morning we went with more aggressive trade ideas like PCLN weekly $410 puts at $1.60, which finished the day at $4.20 (up 162%) and 6 other plays that we're not done with yet plus shorts on the oil futures at $90 that worked out very well.

So why am I angry? You can't really have a better day than we had yesterday. Yesterday is the reason we have sat patiently (well kind of patiently) in cash for a month as we finally got an opportunity to commit to a whole bunch of very obvious trades, the most trade ideas I've had in a single day since early September, when we jumped on Uncle Ben's bullish bandwagon. Sure we find things to trade every day but these are the opportunities we wait for. I guess I'm pissed because we had to pull our December short plays off the table because the cartoon bears have warned us that they will be "Buying the F'ing Dips" and we know better than to argue with cartoon bears because it's simplistic little BS premises like that that rule this market. Ah, that's why I'm angry!

As I keep saying, I don't enjoy day trading - it's not satisfying but it's what we do while we wait for real investment opportunities to come along. While it may be exciting to make 100% on a trade in a single day - it's small money and a tedious (and stressful) way to build up a portfolio. I suppose at heart, I'm a long-term investing coupon-clipper but those kind of investors are being chewed up and spit out in this market and, while we found many, many things to buy earlier in the year, now we're down to one or two long-term opportunities a day while most of the rest of the market looks better as a short.

But you can't even stay short past the closing bell. Even as I write this post our paranoia in taking the money and running (our usual strategy) on our quick gains is looking justified as the dollar is, as usual, being shoved off it's overnight highs (used to prop up the Nikkei in our famous "3am Trade") during the slower EU lunch break in order to now goose the US futures to give US markets the best possible open on the least possible amount of volume (ergo cost to the Gang of 12). Despite debasement efforts by Obama and The Bernank yesterday, the dollar still rose back to 80.81 in overnight trading and that sent the Dow futures all the way down to 11,285 but don't despair - they've already been goosed back to 11,350 - just 5 points shy of yesterday's weak close.

See, in a "normal" market we would have simply stayed short because clearly the momentum was down and the fundamentals indicate that all the efforts of Obama, The Bernank, the BOJ, the BOC, the ECB... are "too little, too late" to put the Humpty Dumpty global economy back together again. Some of the fundamentals we're watching:

German exports declined in October

Machinery orders fell in Japan for October.

Speculators are holding the largest commodity positions on record, up 13% from 2008 highs.

Oil is in a GLUT, with demand off a cliff.

Mortgage Applications are falling again.

15 US States face a $26.7Bn mid-year budget gap.

The EU is passing tough banking regulations.

Our Government is expanding the insider trading investigation.

China is likely to hike interest rates.

Mortgage Bond yields have leaped to 6-month highs.

Italy's budget plan is forcing a "no-confidence" vote for Berlusconi.

US Retailers are cutting earnings forecasts and sitting on big inventories.

These are just TODAY'S headlines and they all add up to RISK. Lack of risk recognition by the markets was the primary reason I called for cash in early November. We are approaching 2008 pre-crash market highs with many stock trading higher than they were then on LESS revenues than they had at the time. Meanwhile, 10% of our population is unemployed, consumer credit is down by over $1,000,000,000 (15%), household wealth is down 20% and income is down while the CPI, even by BS Government measures, is up 5% since then, effectively giving those people who still have jobs 5% less to spend anyway.

And when you consider that discretionary income is just 20% of income - if the 80% they HAVE to spend went up 5%, then that's 4% of discretionary income gone, which is 20% of discretionary income out the window - FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL WORKING. The other 10% have ZERO to spend and that's not good either. All of this is being ignored as "investors" buy stocks on the hopes that they will expand sales internationally and keep cutting costs despite the same inflation the speculators are using to justify their very high valuations. We're effectively writing off the US economy and placing all of our bullish eggs in the global basket - even though they have 20% unemployment "over there." - that's kind of nuts, don't you think?

I'm not even going to ask if the above
chart (from Calculated Risk) disturbs you

. Clearly, from the results of the last election, it does not. We are over 6M jobs away from recovery and we added less than 40,000 last month. At least in Ireland, their population is shrinking, with 65,500 people (1.5%) abandoning the sinking ship as of April of this year. That's less likely to happen in America as Mexico is not that attractive and Canada doesn't want us and most people can't afford to move anyway as they are upside down on their mortgages so we, as a people, sit and wait. We sit and wait for something good to happen. Any minute now... Something good is bound to happen... NOW! OK, maybe not now but really soon - something good has got to happen, right?

That pretty much sums up our national policy - we don't actually do anything to create jobs but if we sprinkle enough magical fairy money on the rich, we're sure they'll start hiring people real soon! Maybe as soon as they are done merging and acquiring smaller companies with all that money where they then create efficiencies by laying off 50,000 people a month (Challenger Job Cut Report) while more and more jobs are outsourced every day ($6Tn worth of jobs are currently outsourced). And why not? There are huge tax advantages to outsourcing US jobs - tax advantages that our President is perpetuating as he bends over and accepts the massive Republican tax cuts for the wealthy on behalf of the American people.

Did I mention I was pissed? Good, then moving along...

So we kept our Jan shorts and didn't add any longs because we expect a bounce on the usual opening nonsense but I don't see enough dry powder left for the bulls to take us over that critical Dow 11,500 mark. Meanwhile, CAT is way too high and they are a Dow component, as are XOM, CVX, IBM and MCD - all stocks that are major components in the price-weighted Dow and are more likely to pull back than move higher.

EU money printing will not inflate our stocks - it may even boost the Buck and that would be bad for commodities, who had a pretty rough day yesterday (and we shorted a few). I wish it were easier and I wish we could just say "CAT is overbought so we're going short" but the fundamentals of the stock are trumped by rumors of infinite Chinese demand and inflation expectations that somehow ignore the negative impact of rising steel prices and increasing borrowing costs on the company. Of course the weak-dollar expectations have everyone moving into stocks, which are just another form of commodity to trade and, even as I write this, the dollar is being jammed back below 80.50 to goose the US open.

At least we know how this game is rigged and we can have lots of fun betting the suckers never do find that red queen but what a shame that this is what the global economy has been reduced to - a shell game - and it's an empty shell at that!

Thanksgiving is almost here, and that means there's only a month of shopping left in the holiday season. However, while this can be a scary realization for many people, you don't have to worry — because we've got ideas for the geeks on your list (or anyone else you want to convert to a life of geekery) covered.

This year, we're giving you the next best thing to actually buying the gifts for you. Your friendly neighborhood Splash Page team has come up with a wide-ranging list of books, games, toys, music and various other things to buy for everyone on your list — from the hardcore fanboys and fangirls to someone who's still learning the difference between Green Lantern and Green Hornet.

In the end, we tried to avoid some of the most obvious comics-related gifts this year and give you a mash-up of our own wishlists and the items we're planning to buy for our own friends and family. Here's hoping you find it helpful when it comes time for you to start dropping your hard-earned money on manufactured holiday joy.

If you're buying gifts for someone new to comics or in need of a familiar name or title to catch their attention, how about "The Dark Tower" graphic novels (based on the popular Stephen King novels) or Dark Horse Comics' "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" or "Serenity" comics (based on Joss Whedon's fan-favorite television series)? They all feature original stories that unfold within and expand the world each one is based upon. There's also IDW Publishing's critically praised "Parker" graphic novels based on the crime-noir novels of Donald Westlake (which also inspired such movies as "Point Blank" and "Payback"). "The Hunter" and "The Outfit" are available now, and they're as beautiful to look at as they are to read.

If you're shopping for someone who loves music almost as much as comics, why not pick up an album by nerd rockers Kirby Krackle? It's filled with ridiculously cool, addictively sing-able tunes about comics, gaming, love, and, well... everything else that being a geek is all about. My favorite track? An ode to Green Lantern titled "Ring Capacity." It's brilliant. Also worth checking out is "Zero Day," the latest album from nerdcore rapper extraordinaire MC Frontalot (named the "rapper laureate" of the massively successful "Penny Arcade" webcomic), as well as the awesomely indie soundtrack for this year's hit film "Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World." Oh, and if you're looking to give someone a nostalgia-inducing trip down memory lane, snag them a copy of "The Music of DC Comics: 75th Anniversary Collection." It's a collection of popular and little-known jingles (who knew "The Atom" had a theme song?) featuring DC characters.

If you're shopping for young readers, pick up a copy of "Tiny Titans/Lil Archie." The books combine all-ages superhero fun with classic Archie characters and sensibility. You might also want to check out Boom Studios' "Muppet Show" comics and Archaia Studios' "Fraggle Rock" comics. Both of these series are just as good as the television shows they're based on, and to be honest, you'll probably enjoy the heck out of 'em, too.

For older readers, why not pick up a few novels written by and for comics fans. Matt Myklusch's "Jack Blank and the Imagine Nation" is a great novel that feels a lot like the "Harry Potter" series, except instead of magic and wizards, it deals with superheroes and supervillains. There's also "Machine of Death: A Collection of Stories About People Who Know How They Will Die," featuring a bunch of stories written (and occasionally illustrated) by some of the biggest names in the webcomics world, including "Dinosaur Comics" creator Ryan North and "Wondermark" creator David Malki.

Looking to help someone prep for next year's slate of comic book movies? Ryan Reynolds name-dropped "Green Lantern: Secret Origin" as one of the books that inspired the upcoming movie, so it can't hurt to revisit Geoff Johns' origin story. On the other side, Marvel's upcoming slate of movies all draw heavily from the publisher's line of "Ultimate" comics, so picking up the first volume of "The Ultimates" (the "Ultimate"-universe version of The Avengers) will get readers ready for what's to come in 2011 and beyond.

Buying for a comics fan with some gaming tendencies? You can't go wrong with "Spider-Man: Shattered Dimensions" for various systems, which gives players the opportunity to web-swing as several different incarnations of Spider-Man over the years. There's also the downloadable game based on "Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World" for the Playstation Network, and the all-ages friendly "Batman: The Brave and the Bold" for the Nintendo Wii. All three games are bunches of comics-inspired fun.

Beyond the normal DVD and Blu-Ray suggestions of "Iron Man 2," "Kick-Ass," "Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World" and other recent big-screen adaptations, you might want to consider some outside-the-box selections like "Grant Morrison: Talking with Gods," a documentary about one of the comics industry's most celebrated writers of the modern era. There's also "Will Eisner: Portrait of a Sequential Artist," which puts the spotlight on one of the greatest creators ever to craft a comic. If documentaries aren't exactly what you're searching for, pick up a copy of "DC Showcase Collection." It's a collection of the excellent animated shorts DC and Warner Bros. have included on their larger animated features the last year or so, focusing on lesser-known characters. Every one of them is animated gold.

If you know someone who enjoys the latest television series based on comics like "The Walking Dead" or "Human Target," why not introduce them to the source material? Image Comics' "The Walking Dead Compendium, Volume 1" collects the first eight chapters of the comic in one hefty book. And though it doesn't quite match up with the comic, Vertigo's "Human Target: Chance Meetings" collects several great storylines from writer Peter Milligan's celebrated work on the series and offers a nice example of why the character is so popular.

On the toy front, we'd be fools not to point you in the direction of Hasbro's awesome Iron Man 2 helmet. It's made to fit just about any head, and is both ridiculously cool and surprisingly comfortable to wear on a regular basis (trust me on this). Of course, if you're buying for kids, you might as well complete the package and buy the Iron Man 2 3-in-1 Repulsor and Iron Man 2 Arc Light — just for the sake of completion. (Note: Star Wars fans, there's a Boba Fett version of the helmet, too.)

And finally, if you're looking for something that will look great on a bookshelf and is as much a status symbol as it is reading material, DC's "Absolute Planetary" hardcovers come with a hefty price tag but are well worth the price. If that's along the lines of what you're looking for, Image Comics' "Spawn Origins Collection" hardcover is another book that will not only be appreciated by whoever receives it, but will make you look that much cooler for picking it out.

And that's about it for the first-ever MTV Splash Page Gift Guide. Here's hoping it gives you some shopping suggestions for the geeks on your list (especially if you're one of them).

Happy shopping, and an early Happy Holidays from MTV Splash Page!

Let us know what you think in the comment section or on Twitter! You can also follow me, Splash Page editor Rick Marshall, on Twitter!

Tags gift guide 2010

bench craft company scam

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Whos Making Money

Wednesday Worries – Ireland “Fixed” – Who’s Next?

No comments:

Post a Comment

Followers

Blog Archive

About Me